The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis.
Identifieur interne : 000475 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000474; suivant : 000476The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis.
Auteurs : Antoine Mandel [France] ; Vipin Veetil [Inde]Source :
- Economics of disasters and climate change [ 2511-1299 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
This paper estimates the cost of the lockdown of some sectors of the world economy in the wake of COVID-19. We develop a multi sector disequilibrium model with buyer-seller relations between agents located in different countries. The production network model allows us to study not only the direct cost of the lockdown but also indirect costs which emerge from the reductions in the availability of intermediate inputs. Agents determine the quantity of output and the proportions in which to combine inputs using prices that emerge from local interactions. The model is calibrated to the world economy using input-output data on 56 industries in 44 countries including all major economies. Within our model, the lockdowns are implemented as partial reductions in the output of some sectors using data on sectoral decomposition of capacity reductions. We use computational experiments to replicate the temporal sequence of the lockdowns implemented in different countries. World output falls by 7% at the early stage of the crisis when only China is under lockdown and by 23% at the peak of the crisis when many countries are under a lockdown. These direct impacts are amplified as the shock propagates through the world economy because of the buyer-seller relations. Supply-chain spillovers are capable of amplifying the direct impact by more than two folds. Naturally, the substitutability between intermediate inputs is a major determinant of the amplification. We also study the process of economic recovery following the end of the lockdowns. Price flexibility and minor technological adaptations help in reducing the time it takes for the economy to recover. The world economy takes about one quarter to move towards the new equilibrium in the optimistic and unlikely scenario of the end of all lockdowns. Recovery time is likely to be significantly greater if partial lockdowns persist.
DOI: 10.1007/s41885-020-00066-z
PubMed: 32838118
PubMed Central: PMC7304379
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis.</title><author><name sortKey="Mandel, Antoine" sort="Mandel, Antoine" uniqKey="Mandel A" first="Antoine" last="Mandel">Antoine Mandel</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Paris School of Economics, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France and Climate Finance Alpha, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Paris School of Economics, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France and Climate Finance Alpha, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Veetil, Vipin" sort="Veetil, Vipin" uniqKey="Veetil V" first="Vipin" last="Veetil">Vipin Veetil</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Indian Instiute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Indian Instiute of Technology Madras, Chennai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chennai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PubMed</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="RBID">pubmed:32838118</idno><idno type="pmid">32838118</idno><idno type="doi">10.1007/s41885-020-00066-z</idno><idno type="pmc">PMC7304379</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Corpus">000391</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PubMed">000391</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000391</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Main" wicri:step="Curation">000391</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000391</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en">The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis.</title><author><name sortKey="Mandel, Antoine" sort="Mandel, Antoine" uniqKey="Mandel A" first="Antoine" last="Mandel">Antoine Mandel</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:affiliation>Paris School of Economics, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France and Climate Finance Alpha, Paris, France.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Paris School of Economics, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France and Climate Finance Alpha, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Veetil, Vipin" sort="Veetil, Vipin" uniqKey="Veetil V" first="Vipin" last="Veetil">Vipin Veetil</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Indian Instiute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Indian Instiute of Technology Madras, Chennai</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Chennai</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Economics of disasters and climate change</title><idno type="eISSN">2511-1299</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">This paper estimates the cost of the lockdown of some sectors of the world economy in the wake of COVID-19. We develop a multi sector disequilibrium model with buyer-seller relations between agents located in different countries. The production network model allows us to study not only the direct cost of the lockdown but also indirect costs which emerge from the reductions in the availability of intermediate inputs. Agents determine the quantity of output and the proportions in which to combine inputs using prices that emerge from local interactions. The model is calibrated to the world economy using input-output data on 56 industries in 44 countries including all major economies. Within our model, the lockdowns are implemented as partial reductions in the output of some sectors using data on sectoral decomposition of capacity reductions. We use computational experiments to replicate the temporal sequence of the lockdowns implemented in different countries. World output falls by 7% at the early stage of the crisis when only China is under lockdown and by 23% at the peak of the crisis when many countries are under a lockdown. These direct impacts are amplified as the shock propagates through the world economy because of the buyer-seller relations. Supply-chain spillovers are capable of amplifying the direct impact by more than two folds. Naturally, the substitutability between intermediate inputs is a major determinant of the amplification. We also study the process of economic recovery following the end of the lockdowns. Price flexibility and minor technological adaptations help in reducing the time it takes for the economy to recover. The world economy takes about one quarter to move towards the new equilibrium in the optimistic and unlikely scenario of the end of all lockdowns. Recovery time is likely to be significantly greater if partial lockdowns persist.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32838118</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>09</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2511-1299</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Jun</Month><Day>19</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Economics of disasters and climate change</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Econ Disaster Clim Chang</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>1-21</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1007/s41885-020-00066-z</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>This paper estimates the cost of the lockdown of some sectors of the world economy in the wake of COVID-19. We develop a multi sector disequilibrium model with buyer-seller relations between agents located in different countries. The production network model allows us to study not only the direct cost of the lockdown but also indirect costs which emerge from the reductions in the availability of intermediate inputs. Agents determine the quantity of output and the proportions in which to combine inputs using prices that emerge from local interactions. The model is calibrated to the world economy using input-output data on 56 industries in 44 countries including all major economies. Within our model, the lockdowns are implemented as partial reductions in the output of some sectors using data on sectoral decomposition of capacity reductions. We use computational experiments to replicate the temporal sequence of the lockdowns implemented in different countries. World output falls by 7% at the early stage of the crisis when only China is under lockdown and by 23% at the peak of the crisis when many countries are under a lockdown. These direct impacts are amplified as the shock propagates through the world economy because of the buyer-seller relations. Supply-chain spillovers are capable of amplifying the direct impact by more than two folds. Naturally, the substitutability between intermediate inputs is a major determinant of the amplification. We also study the process of economic recovery following the end of the lockdowns. Price flexibility and minor technological adaptations help in reducing the time it takes for the economy to recover. The world economy takes about one quarter to move towards the new equilibrium in the optimistic and unlikely scenario of the end of all lockdowns. Recovery time is likely to be significantly greater if partial lockdowns persist.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Mandel</LastName><ForeName>Antoine</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Paris School of Economics, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France and Climate Finance Alpha, Paris, France.</Affiliation><Identifier Source="GRID">grid.10988.38</Identifier><Identifier Source="ISNI">0000 0001 2173 743X</Identifier></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Veetil</LastName><ForeName>Vipin</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Indian Instiute of Technology Madras, Chennai, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>19</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>Switzerland</Country><MedlineTA>Econ Disaster Clim Chang</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>101729939</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>2511-1299</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">COVID-19</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Disequilibrium dynamics</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Lockdown</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Multi market model</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">Production network</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>05</Month><Day>07</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>06</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>8</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32838118</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1007/s41885-020-00066-z</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pii">66</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="pmc">PMC7304379</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><pmc-dir>pmcsd</pmc-dir>
<ReferenceList><Reference><Citation>Risk Anal. 2008 Jun;28(3):779-99</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">18643833</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference><Reference><Citation>Lancet. 2020 Feb 29;395(10225):675</Citation><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32113494</ArticleId></ArticleIdList></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li><li>Inde</li></country><region><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Paris</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Mandel, Antoine" sort="Mandel, Antoine" uniqKey="Mandel A" first="Antoine" last="Mandel">Antoine Mandel</name></region></country><country name="Inde"><noRegion><name sortKey="Veetil, Vipin" sort="Veetil, Vipin" uniqKey="Veetil V" first="Vipin" last="Veetil">Vipin Veetil</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/CovidFranceV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000475 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000475 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= CovidFranceV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= pubmed:32838118
|texte= The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis.
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32838118" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a CovidFranceV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.37. |  |